Making Sense of Mortgage Rates in Today's Economy - From Corey Cunningham, Mortgage Specialist RBC

Making sense of mortgage rates in today’s economy

Many prospective homebuyers are wondering what has happened to mortgage rates in 2009, and where they may go from here. RBC Economics Research recently updated its’ outlook, and here is what the group has to report.

Since hitting a low in January of 2009, longer-term interest rates have trended higher with the move accelerating in July. The prospect that the worst is over for the global economy is giving investors the confidence to venture out of low-return fixed income securities and seek higher risk investments. While we expect many bumps on the road to recovery we still see potential for a very modest decrease in long-term rates in the final quarter of this year.

Outlook for the future

Momentum in the global economy appears to be changing. Leading indicators currently point to the end of economic contraction for the industrialized world in the third quarter of 2009. Stimulus from central banks, combined with government fiscal stimulus packages, is expected to support a fledgling recovery that is forecast to build momentum in 2010.

Until this recovery is well underway, no changes to policy rates are likely. The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the status quo until mid-2010. Once the recovery is well established, central banks will normalize their policy rates, and interest rates are likely to increase.

Fixed vs. variable rate mortgages

One of the biggest decisions homebuyers face is choosing between a fixed or variable rate mortgage. This is not a simple decision, which is why many people are looking for advice to help them decide which mortgage interest type is best for them, based on their personal circumstances. I can help homebuyers and homeowners decide which option best fits their situation and risk tolerance.

Mortgage rates continue to trend at historic lows, despite the fact that fixed rates have edged up recently. In this environment, people who are comfortable without a guaranteed rate are opting for a variable rate mortgage. Such a strategy could result in considerable interest savings.

What homebuyers choose should depend on how they feel about rate fluctuations and their cash flow. For example, a first time homebuyer may want assurance that the rate, payment and repayment schedule will not change, and may be wise to opt for a fixed term. A homebuyer who is not concerned about rate fluctuations may want to take advantage of today’s low variable rates in a bid to save more on mortgage interest over the long term.

Today’s flexible mortgage products let you bridge the gap between these strategies. For example, the RBC Homeline Plan lets homebuyers split their mortgages and enjoy the advantages of both variable and fixed rates within a credit limit of up to 80% of the value of the home. The variable portion offers potential long-term savings, while the fixed rate portion offers rate protection. The dividing line is entirely up to the homeowner.

RBC has many resources available:

· Fixed or variable rate – know your options

· Consider the security of a fixed rate mortgage

· The advantages of a variable rate mortgage



Get more information

RBC publishes free research information. It’s easy to stay informed. Register at www.rbc.com/economics for automatic email delivery of new reports.

Your new home doesn't come with mortgage advice. I do.

Contact me today:
Corey Cunningham
Mobile Mortgage Specialist
RBC Royal Bank
(519) 535-2682
corey.cunningham@rbc.com
http://mortgage.rbc.com/corey.cunningham

The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

® Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. RBC and Royal Bank are registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. © 2009 Royal Bank of Canada.

Canadian home sales remain strong

Reprinted courtesy of The Globe and Mail

Canadian home sales dipped slightly in August as the market took a breather after strong spring and summer sales, according to statistics released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Year-over-year, the number of sales was up 18.5 per cent from August, 2008.

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, national …[resale] home sales held steady. At 42,426 units, seasonally adjusted activity came within six-tenths of 1 per cent of levels in the previous month,” CREA said.

“Seasonally adjusted activity in Alberta and Quebec declined, offsetting activity gains in British Columbia.”

Economists had expected that the pace of resale activity might ease a bit between July and August “following a 61 per cent blast-off in the prior six months,” Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist of the Bank of Montreal, said in his morning research note.

Ben Sage, Sales Representative. Re/Max a-b Realty Ltd., Brokerage. 519-536-7535. 521 Dundas St., Woodstock, ON

Bank of Canada keeps key rate unchanged

Reprinted courtesy of CBC NEWS

The Bank of Canada left its key overnight interest rate unchanged Thursday as it again warned that a high Canadian dollar poses a risk to economic recovery.

The target for the overnight rate will remain at 0.25 per cent. Economists had expected no change.

The central bank also reiterated its commitment to leave the key rate at that level through the middle of next year as long as inflation remains in check.

The central bank said growth for the remainder of the year will likely be higher than it forecast earlier this summer.

"Combined with recent information on inventory adjustments and automotive production, this suggests that GDP growth in the second half of 2009 could be stronger than the bank projected in July," it said in a release.

The central bank said it still expects inflation will remain low and will return to its two per cent target in the second quarter of 2011 "as aggregate supply and demand return to balance."

Government softens impact of HST on new housing

Reprinted courtesy of CREA


The Government of Ontario is proposing two measures that will soften the impact of the harmonized sales tax (HST) on new housing. The HST was introduced in the 2009 Ontario Budget.

Under the first measure, the province proposes to enhance the new home HST rebate so that it
would be calculated as 75 per cent of the provincial portion of the HST payable on the purchase
of a new home, up to a maximum rebate of $24,000. Under the government’s initial proposal only homes under $400,000 qualified for the 75 per cent rebate.

Similar to the enhanced new housing rebate, the province is proposing a rebate for new residential rental properties. Landlords who purchase new rental homes would be eligible for the rebate, calculated as 75 per cent of the provincial portion of the single sales tax payable on the purchase of a new rental home, up to a maximum rebate of $24,000.

The province is also proposing HST transitional rules for new housing. Generally, as part of the
transitional rules, sales of new homes under written agreements of purchase and sale entered into on or before June 18, 2009 would not be subject to the provincial portion of the single sales tax, even if both ownership and possession are transferred on or after July 1, 2010.

For more information on the HST - click HERE

There you go - buy your new house before June 18, 2010 and save!

Canadian housing starts jump in August

Reprinted courtesy of CBC News

Canada's housing sector continued on the comeback trail in August as home starts for the month jumped more than 12 per cent, according to new figures released Wednesday.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said construction companies started work on 14,177 new homes in August, for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 150,400.

The August jump represented a 12.1 per cent increase versus July and reinforced CMHC's belief that the housing sector is seeing a sharp rise in activity.

"Housing starts are trending higher, reflecting improvements in both the single and multiple segments," said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC's market analysis centre.

"The improvement in housing starts is consistent with our expectation of a stronger second half for 2009," he said.

Building rise

Similar to the American housing market, Canada's home sector has seen increased activity, both in new house construction and resale activity, in recent months.

Markets in the two countries had been pounded during the past year as a slumping economy cut house values and reduced the incentive to buy a new abode.

Thus, even with August's increase, housing starts were still down more than 25 per cent compared to the same month in 2008.

Analysts have pointed to record low interest rates and relatively low mortgage costs — currently hovering around four per cent at many institutions — as major factors underscoring the housing comeback.

In a report also released on Tuesday, RBC Economics backed up that point, noting that home affordability in Canada improved in the second quarter of the year.

B.C. gain

The big provincial winner in the CMHC figures appeared to be British Columbia as annualized housing starts reached 17,000 for the country's most westerly province. That represented a jump of 56 per cent versus July's figure.

The Prairie region was the area with the second best growth rate for August, up 16 per cent compared to the previous month while Ontario saw housing starts rise by more than 13 per cent.

Housing affordability improves, RBC says

Reprinted courtesy of cbcnews.ca

It's becoming easier to carry the costs of home ownership in Canada, but a survey by RBC Economics on housing affordability suggests this may be as good as it's going to get.

Home ownership became more affordable in the second quarter, the bank said Wednesday. It was the fifth straight quarter that the measure improved, it said.

"The national home affordability level has been restored to pre-housing boom levels," senior RBC economist Robert Hogue said in a statement.

But he warned that consumers shouldn't expect affordability to improve much more.

"The recuperative phase of the affordability cycle seems to be drawing to a close, with housing prices firming up in many parts of the country, and mortgage rates no longer trending downward," Hogue said.

Most banks lowered their mortgage rates in the last week, reversing this summer's earlier rate hike. A five-year fixed closed mortgage can now be obtained at 4.19 per cent at many banks and as little as 3.99 per cent at a few smaller financial institutions.

The RBC affordability study measures the percentage of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of buying a home (mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes).

Housing affordability - bungalow
City	Q2/09 (% of pretax income needed)	Q2/08
Vancouver	63.4	76.8
Calgary	35.7	46.2
Edmonton	33.8	41.8
Toronto	46.5	54.2
Ottawa	38.6	42.4
Montreal	37.3	41.4
CANADA	39.1	45.4
Source: RBC Economics

The study found that it took an average of 39.1 per cent of income to pay for a detached bungalow in the three months ending in June — down from 39.7 per cent in the first quarter.

The priciest market continued to be Vancouver, where it took 63.4 per cent of pre-tax income to service a bungalow purchase.

Nationally, the RBC study found that affordability also improved for two-storey homes, townhouses and condos.

Despite predictions that home affordability is levelling off, RBC economists say the recent bounce-back in the housing market is not likely to wane any time soon.

"Supply of properties for sale is dropping as demand bounces back, which is working to heat up prices again in many parts of the country," RBC's Hogue said.

Figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed that 50,270 homes changed hands in July via MLS — a record for any July.

The average residential resale price rose 7.6 per cent from a year ago to $326,832.

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